THE NASH MARKET (part 3 - Annexes)

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ANNEXES

METHODOLOGY

The objective was to evaluate the potential market share for each segment, each drug and each month from Jan 2019 to Dec 2026.

To do that,  a computation was made for each of the 20 market segments

The prevalence and market segment size were explained in Phase 3

Using a 5% global NASH prevalence the segments size was recomputed in equivalent patients (based on a 600 M adult patients base, USA and 6 most developped countries in Europe)



The relative market shares

For each month, the drug strength on the market was computed using :

  • The initial market agreement month
  • The global market penetration curve


  • The target pertinence for the segment (using the Fibrosis grade percentages and the CV/noCV diabetes/no diabetes percentages affected to the drug at start)



Then we applied the market maturation curve defined for each segment to determine the market part of each drug relative to a potential mature market .


Until the market is saturated  (<100% of the timed market potential, defined using the month value on maturation curve) , the respective values are used as a global segment market share.

When the market is saturated ( >=100% of the timed market potential, defined using the month value on maturation curve), the market shares are recomputed using the relative market strength of each drug to fulfill the market (100%% max).

This is done for each month from Jan 2019 to Dec 2026.

Then, a 6 months sliding average value is computed to smooth the market shares variations.

To simulate the premium linked to seniority on the market we computed an virtual inertia for each drug using a weight increasing each month from the agreement date. The range used for inertia is forced in a limited range (-25% +25%) and used to ponder marked share variations from month to month.  (It is empirical and can be debated).

Then we obtain a table with relative market share of each drug and each month for the concerned market segment.

 

The segment market value

The global market value is then computed for each month using :

-        The initial number of patients of the segment resized months by months using the global prevalence progression slope.


-        The Annual cost of treatment resized months by months using the segment initial price and the price regression slope.

 

The annual sales forecast by segment

For each segment, each drug and each month, an annual sales forecast value is computed. (it is not the month sales but the sliding equivalent annual sales computed each month).

 

The global annual sale forecast

Tor each month and each drug,  all the segment equivalent annual projected sales are added to obtain a global income forecast.



ACCESS TO MARKET

In the simulation, the time between drug agreement and full acces to market was evaluated at 25 months, but we can simulate a faster acces or a longuer one .. the following animated pictures simulate a delay from 12 months to 48 months :

The more the delay needed to penetrate market is , the more first entrants are favorized !


CurveDelayAnim
QCDelayAnim
QSDelayAnim
YDelayAnim

  



OTHER SIMULATIONS (not yet updated with diabetes prévalence, in course !)

It is interesting to examine the impact of delayed Phases 2 on the forecasted sales of the two leaders already in phase 3.

Below, we arbitrary increased the trial delay of all drugs, except the two leaders already in phase 3.  

The total delay of the animation is one year month by month step.


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QS

 


Y




IN CASE OF SMALLER PREVALENCE OF NASH

To please one of our readers, we explored the hypothesis of a reduced prevalence of NASH at 3% of the global population.




If you want to explore another hypothesis, dont hesitate to let us know in the comments below.



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